An Egyptian engineer who worked with a team to consider theoretical impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam told me that the dam is technically a good thing for the Nile as a human-beneficial system. This mega-project can regulate water in a hot arid part of the world can maximize water in the dry season and minimize flooding in the wet season. There is also the issue of sediment flow. A reduction downstream can benefit dams in Sudan and Egypt by lengthening the life-time of the dams and reduce the frequency of dredging. Dredging is necessary not only behind the dams, but in the irrigation canals.
But aside from these things that are loudly considered in the media, are there other impacts (good and bad) from this dam that are not being discussed in the current discourse? I hope once the report is released more salient discussions will commence - not potential earthquakes or water war talk - but serious discussion about the intricacies of development.
So I went to Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan in an attempt to get a clearer picture and understand. Our problem is that we always have a prejudgment on people and certain issues, and such an attitude sometimes leads us to the wrong conclusions. My aim was to understand what is currently going on regarding the Nile water war, to understand the reason for the Ethiopian stance and to understand where we currently stand regarding this matter.
Back then, the suggested solution was that Egypt will not allow building any dams that affect its share of water. The international law actually stands on Egypt's side regarding this point. At the same time, however, as studies were conducted to establish dams on the Nile from upstream countries, Egypt showed its willingness to contribute and cooperate in establishing them as long as no harm is done to Egyptian national security interests. I believe this is right path towards resolving this crisis: cooperating, studying and negotiating at the same time.
The nine countries that share the Nile with Egypt are considered unstable countries which are incapable of launching giant projects on the river or incapable of agricultural land reclamation. These countries also suffer from local crises. Some of them suffer from civil wars, tribal struggles and economic problems.
Huge projects also require international funding which cannot be provided without feasible studies approved by all countries that benefit from the river. Egypt's entrance to deal with this crisis comes here. This point as well brings up the probability that there is no imminent danger that threatens the Nile's flow to Egypt in the foreseeable future.
We must understand that any expense, burden or effort carried out in the area of the Nile Basin countries is not a waste of resources but a form of direct colonization in the future.Abdel Latif el-Menawy
But at the same time, some of us must not be carried away with enthusiasm or with the desire to achieve fake heroic acts and end up escalating the rhetoric to reach the extent of making threats and sounding the drums of a war when there are no drums! The issue must be resolved through maintaining patience, resuming negotiations and emphasizing that the concept of cooperation is the basis to compensate what was lost and the basis to maintain our rights that will not be harmed.
Although it has been three years since all of this, the group ruling Egypt drowned in its failure, greed and fake renaissance and drowned us with it.
According to media reports, the Brotherhood has not yet awaken from its slumber and is still studying the experts' commission's final report on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The report will be submitted before the end of May in order to be put before the presidents of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. The report indicates that Ethiopian studies on the dam "are incomplete." This is the same conclusion drawn by the experts' commission's last progress report. A practical study has also confirmed that the expected results from establishing the dam will be "disastrous" and will lead to displacing millions of Egyptian families.