Dr. Jennifer Veilleux is a geographer and water scientist. This blog shares news, research, and fieldwork experiences from the Nile, Mekong, and Missouri river basins. She analyzes the impact development has on water and river communities.
Recent article on Nile negotiations indicates that the talks are moving toward an agreement between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The Al Jazeera article states that although everything said has been kept secret, the fact that meetings are ongoing is encouraging. The Nile power dynamics have shifted since 2011 Egyptian revolution and the ground breaking for the Renaissance Dam. This climax is motivated by changing regional politics, economics, population numbers, social demands, and environmental pressures from climate change. The region wants electricity for development, governments are leasing or selling land near or adjacent to water resources (riparian land) increasing since 2008, and types of farming activity are changing.
Water remains sensitive and key for Egypt (and presumably Sudan). I just returned from a trip in Egypt as a tourist. Traveling along the Nile it is quite evident to me how important the riparian land is for local farmers and local economics in Upper Egypt. Outside of the megacity of Cairo, the land turns green and fertile. Although the Nile floods ceased after High Aswan was commissioned in the 70s, soil experts suggest that there is about 30 meters of good soil left on the banks of the river. I am curious to better understand how long such soils last when not being replenished with nutrients and sediment deposited by floodwaters. Can the Egyptian government engineer its way out of the challenge posed by the loss of the fertile input in a natural system that sustained civilizations going back thousands of years? The benefits of damming the Nile are evident - electricity for one, but also a control of flood events and a consistent flow for higher crop yields. Still, Egypt has to import a large percentage of food consumed domestically. In the South, the main crop appears to be sugar cane. The meat consumed by tourists is flown in from Brazil. One local remarked that if Egyptians fed the tourists on local meat, there'd be nothing left for the local population. I imagine that the locals would be priced out as well.
There is a phenomena of locals selling their arable land in and around Cairo/Giza on the canals and river for building rather than keeping it for farming. Apparently locals make more money selling the land off to wealthy city folks for building rather than using the land to produce crops. This practice is happening sometimes illegally and buildings often remain unfinished to avoid paying taxes. Irrigation rights and distribution is decided centrally in Cairo for the country's 80 million or so people living along the river. Outside of the major urban centers, tourism related work and farming appear to be the only widespread income options.
The Western desert water project in Egypt is in an unknown status as Sisi focuses on a new canal project parallel to the Suez. I'd suggest that though we can feel encouraged and even inspired by how well the regional governments are responding to change and challenges of water sharing on the Nile, when it comes to water resources, a closer examination of how water is allocated is necessary. This is an issue of scale and system dynamics. The 11 Nile countries cooperating on releasing economic, agricultural, geographic, and general water resources information (data sharing agreements) will be a next step in Nile water resources management. I hope this follows on the heels of high level diplomatic relations of large scale water resources.
Anyway, enjoy the update on Nile negotiations and please do check out the work of some of the experts quoted in the article. Especially, if you like policy discussions, check out the new book release by Mwangi S. Kimenyi.
The
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is being built across a major
Nile tributary, is expected to produce up to 6,000 megawatts of
electricity during peak times [AP]
A
long-simmering water conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt has moved a
step closer to resolution, after the countries' foreign ministers
announced last week they had reached a preliminary agreement on sharing
Nile water.
The deal, which still needs to be approved by the heads of state of
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, appears to be an important breakthrough,
observers say - although details of the agreement have not yet been made
public.
"This is significant in my view," Mwangi Kimenyi, a Brookings
Institute fellow who co-authored a book on the need for a new legal
regime on sharing Nile water, told Al Jazeera. "Any development in the
sharing of Nile water that is based on negotiations between the
stakeholders is a positive development."
The deal is important because it appears to mark a move away from
Egypt's historical insistence on maintaining colonial-era agreements on
water rights. RELATED: Egypt to 'escalate' Ethiopian dam dispute
Last week's meetings were the latest in a series of diplomatic efforts to resolve a conflict that has at times escalated to threats of war
between two countries viewed as anchors of stability at either end of
the Nile: Egypt thirsty for water, Ethiopia hungry for economic
development.
The foreign ministers and water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and
Sudan met in Khartoum last Tuesday for diplomatic and technical
discussions over a large dam Ethiopia is constructing over a Nile
tributary.
On Friday, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti told reporters: "A
full agreement has been reached between our three countries on the
principles of the use of the eastern Nile Basin and the Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam."
Failure in construction of the dam will mean a failure for Ethiopia. By building this dam, we will develop this country.
Belachew Chekene Tesfa, Ethiopian engineer
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) being built across a major
Nile tributary, the Blue Nile, about 40km from the Sudanese border, is
expected to produce up to 6,000 megawatts of electricity during peak
times, making it Africa's largest hydroelectric scheme.
Ethiopians believe the dam will transform their country, where only
around one-third of the population has access to electricity, into a
major electricity exporter to East Africa - raising living standards,
spurring economic growth and leaving behind a history of drought and
famine.
Ethiopians have invested heavily in the dam, buying government bonds
to help raise the nearly $5bn needed and becoming advocates for its
potential benefits.
"Failure in construction of the dam will mean a failure for
Ethiopia," said Belachew Chekene Tesfa, an Ethiopian engineer based in
the United Kingdom who works in the field of renewable energy.
Tesfa, a founder of Ethiopian International Professional Support for
Abay (the Ethiopian name for the Nile), was inspired to form the group
to promote the dam. "By building this dam, we will develop this
country," he said.
Egypt, meanwhile, is concerned about the downstream effects. Heavily
reliant on the Nile, Egyptians have long treated the river as a
birthright, and for decades Egypt blocked upstream developments, relying
on a "historic" right to Nile water codified in colonial-era treaties.
With a growing population and a water-hungry agricultural economy,
Egypt will need an extra 21 billion cubic metres of water per year by
2050, on top of the 55 billion cubic metres it currently receives,
Egypt's National Planning Institute believes. RELATED: Ethiopia discards Egypt threats over Nile dam
Egypt has struggled to adapt to the new power dynamic as a determined
Ethiopia has disregarded the colonial agreements - widely seen by
upstream states as unfair for not including them - and proceeded with
dam construction, irrespective of Egypt's objections.
The "game has changed. Egypt is playing catch-up", independent Nile expert Alan Nicol told Al Jazeera.
Egypt's opposition to the GERD - which, under former President
Mohamed Morsi, escalated to threats of war - has softened since former
army chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was elected president last May. On his
first overseas trip as president, Sisi met Ethiopian Prime Minister
Hailemariam Desalegn at the African Union summit in Malabo, Guineau
Bissau last June.
Newly readmitted to the AU, Egypt achieved a further breakthrough
when Ethiopia agreed to restart talks on the GERD, which had been
stalled for months, and to form a bilateral committee on issues of
mutual concern.
Further visits by Egyptian officials to Ethiopia followed. At a time
when Egypt has been preoccupied with a low-level internal insurgency in
Sinai, a stumbling economy and the threat of a failed state on its
doorstep as Libya implodes, these visits pointed towards a renewed
commitment to a diplomatic solution.
With the Nile's balance of power shifting towards Ethiopia, it has
been incumbent on Egypt to overcome the mistrust resulting from decades
of obstructive policies towards upstream Nile states.
Cooperation is the only way to prepare effectively for the Nile's future ebb and flow.
Alan Nicol, independent Nile expert
A western diplomat in Cairo, who spoke on condition of anonymity,
said that until recently "the Ethiopians have been playing with time"
and did not feel pressured to reach a deal, but in the long term, "it
wouldn't be in their favour to build and not give any reassurance to
Egypt". VIDEO: Egypt concerns rise over Ethiopian dam
Last week's announcement will allow Egypt to take home a victory,
necessary after long claiming the upstream Nile development was an
existential threat.
"It's kind of face saving," said Salman Salman, a Sudanese water law
expert, who added: "now they realise the need to move beyond face saving
to the real issues."
Others say the actual import of the agreement will depend on whether
it includes concrete figures for the utilisation of the Nile's water. "I
am hoping that the agreement will include actual data on the volumes of
water that Ethiopia can use. That would be real evidence of a good
arrangement," Kimenyi said.
Salman said he expected the deal to include an agreed period of time
during which Ethiopia would fill the GERD's reservoir. Filling it more
slowly would reduce the downstream impact on Egypt, he said. He also
speculated that the deal could include an agreement for Ethiopia to
export electricity to Egypt.
With rising demand for water, a cooperative approach between the Nile
riparian states is the only viable long-term solution, Nicol added.
"Cooperation is the only way to prepare effectively for the Nile's
future ebb and flow."
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